If you’re one of the millions of Americans depending on Social Security benefits to keep the lights on, put food on the table, or even just make life a little easier, the 2026 Social Security COLA (Cost-of-Living Adjustment) is a number you probably care about—a lot. Every January, the COLA decides if your monthly check gets a bump to keep pace with inflation.
Early buzz? Experts are projecting a 2.6% to 2.8% increase for 2026. That’s not the biggest raise we’ve seen lately, but it’s better than nothing—and in today’s economy, every extra buck counts. Let’s break it down with some straight talk, professional insights, and practical tips.
Social Security COLA 2026
| Fact / Stat | 2026 COLA Prediction | Impact on Average Check |
|---|---|---|
| The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimate | 2.6% | ~$52/month increase |
| Mary Johnson (Economist) estimate | 2.7% | ~$53–54/month increase |
| Tipswatch forecast | ~2.8% | ~$55/month increase |
| Average current retiree benefit | $2,005/month | N/A |
| Official COLA announcement date | October 2025 | N/A |
| Projected Medicare Part B premium hike | 11.6% (to $206.50/mo) | Could reduce COLA gains |
The 2026 Social Security COLA is shaping up to land between 2.6% and 2.8%—a modest raise compared to recent years. But with Medicare premiums jumping sharply, your net gain might be smaller. The smart move? Plan early, know your numbers, and find ways to supplement your income so inflation doesn’t eat your lunch.
What Is the COLA and Why It Matters
The Cost-of-Living Adjustment is the government’s way of making sure Social Security payments keep up with inflation. If prices at the grocery store, gas pump, or doctor’s office go up, your check should too—at least in theory.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) calculates COLA using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). They look at inflation data from July, August, and September each year, compare it to the same period the year before, and whatever percentage increase they find becomes the COLA for the next year.
Mark your calendar: The official 2026 COLA will be announced in October 2025.
How 2026 Compares — A Look Back at Past COLAs
| Year | COLA % | Average Monthly Increase* |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.9% | ~$92 |
| 2023 | 8.7% | ~$140 |
| 2024 | 3.2% | ~$59 |
| 2025 | 2.5% | ~$48 |
| 2026 (projected) | 2.6–2.8% | ~$52–55 |
*Based on average retiree benefits for each year.
Takeaway: The 2026 increase will be much smaller than the giant 8.7% in 2023, but that’s because inflation is calmer now.
COLA History
| Year | COLA Increase | Context |
| 2023 | 8.7% | The highest COLA in over 40 years, due to a surge in post-pandemic inflation. |
| 2024 | 3.2% | A significant increase, but reflecting a slowing rate of inflation compared to the previous year. |
| 2025 | 2.5% | A more modest increase, signaling a further cooling of inflation. |
| 2026 (projected) | 2.6%-2.7% | Early projections suggest a slight increase over 2025’s COLA, but the final number depends on upcoming inflation data. |
2026 Predictions — The Numbers So Far
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL)
TSCL’s July estimate is 2.6%, up from 2.5% earlier in the year. This would mean about $52 more per month for someone getting the average $2,005 check.
Economist Mary Johnson
Mary Johnson forecasts 2.7%, putting the increase closer to $54 a month for most retirees.
Tipswatch
This independent tracker calls for ~2.8%, the highest estimate so far, which would be about $55 extra for someone collecting $1,952.
Best-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios
- Best case: Inflation ticks up just enough in July–September to push COLA to 3%. That’s ~$60 more per month for the average retiree.
- Worst case: Inflation slows down, dropping COLA to 2.4%. That’s only ~$48 extra a month.
Real-Life Examples
- Mary, 72, retired teacher — Current benefit: $1,800/month → 2.7% COLA adds $48.60/month.
- Robert, 65, new retiree — Current benefit: $2,400/month → 2.7% COLA adds $64.80/month.
- Sandra, 59, on SSDI — Current benefit: $1,300/month → 2.7% COLA adds $35.10/month.
The Medicare Problem: Your Raise Might Shrink
Medicare Part B premiums are expected to rise by 11.6% in 2026—from $185 to $206.50/month. That could eat up much of the COLA raise.
Example: $54 COLA increase − $21.50 Medicare increase = $32.50 net gain.
COLA’s Impact Beyond Retirees: SSDI & SSI
The COLA doesn’t just affect retirees—it also boosts Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI). For many low-income disabled Americans, that’s their only raise all year.
Why COLA Uses CPI-W (and Why That’s Flawed)
The CPI-W tracks costs for urban wage earners, not seniors. That means it underestimates expenses like healthcare, which make up a big chunk of retiree budgets. Some lawmakers want to switch to CPI-E (Consumer Price Index for the Elderly), but that hasn’t happened yet.
Step-by-Step: How to Prepare for 2026
- Check your current benefit — Log into your my Social Security account.
- Run your own estimate — Multiply your current benefit by 0.026 to 0.028.
- Subtract Medicare increases — Expect ~$21.50 more per month for Part B.
- Update your budget — Account for both extra income and extra costs.
- Plan for surprises — Inflation can change quickly.
Tips to Boost Your Retirement Income (Beyond COLA)
- Delay claiming benefits if you can — Each year you wait past full retirement age increases your benefit.
- Consider part-time work — Even a small side income can offset cost increases.
- Use senior discounts — From groceries to travel, small savings add up.
- Review your Medicare plan annually — Switching plans could save you more than COLA adds.
Top 3 Myths to Avoid
Myth #1: The COLA is a “raise.” The COLA isn’t a raise in the traditional sense; it’s an adjustment designed to help your benefits keep pace with inflation so your purchasing power doesn’t fall behind.
Myth #2: The COLA is based on the general inflation rate. While related, the COLA is specifically calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which tracks a different basket of goods and services than the more common CPI-U.
Myth #3: A low COLA means the economy is bad. A lower COLA usually indicates that inflation is under control, which can be a positive sign for the broader economy and for retirees’ fixed budgets.
Did You Know? (Fun Facts)
- The biggest COLA ever was 14.3% in 1981.
- Some years had 0% COLA (2010, 2011, 2016).
- COLA began in 1975—before that, increases had to be passed by Congress.
FAQs
Q: When will we know the final COLA?
A: October 2025.
Q: Does COLA affect taxes on Social Security?
A: Yes—if your income rises above certain thresholds, more of your benefits could be taxed.
Q: Where can I check official numbers?
A: SSA.gov/cola
